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Le Hasard Existe T Il Dissertation Outline

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La théorie du chaos, à laquelle Poincaré a très largement contribué, sous-entend que le hasard n'existe pas pour une entité qui, à un moment donné, serait en mesure de connaître toutes les propriétés de tous les éléments dans une précision infinie.

Citation : Henri Poincaré

Nous devons donc envisager l'état présent de l'univers comme l'effet de son état antérieur, et comme la cause de celui qui va suivre. Une intelligence qui pour un instant donné connaîtrait toutes les forces dont la nature est animée et la situation respective des êtres qui la composent, si d'ailleurs elle était assez vaste pour soumettre ses données à l'analyse, embrasserait dans la même formule les mouvements des plus grands corps de l'univers et ceux du plus léger atome : rien ne serait incertain pour elle, et l'avenir comme le passé serait présent à ses yeux.


On part ici du principe que l'Univers est déterministe, que chaque événement respecte le principe de causalité (je vous renvoie d'ailleurs à cette conférence d'Étienne Klein sur le temps où il traite dudit principe). Cependant, Poincaré a montré que prévoir ce qui ve se passer n'implique pas forcément de connaître avec précision la réalité des faits, que prédiction amène imprédictibilité. Bon, sous ces mots compliqués se cache une notion tout à fait accessible que l'on pourrait résumer au moyen de cette nouvelle citation :

Citation : Henri Poincaré

Une cause très petite, qui nous échappe, détermine un effet considérable que nous ne pouvons pas ne pas voir, et alors nous disons que cet effet est dû au hasard. Si nous connaissions exactement les lois de la nature et la situation de l'univers à l'instant initial, nous pourrions prédire exactement la situation de ce même univers à un instant ultérieur. Mais, lors même que les lois naturelles n'auraient plus de secret pour nous, nous ne pourrions connaître la situation qu'approximativement. Si cela nous permet de prévoir la situation ultérieure avec la même approximation, c'est tout ce qu'il nous faut, nous disons que le phénomène a été prévu, qu'il est régi par des lois ; mais il n'en est pas toujours ainsi, il peut arriver que de petites différences dans les conditions initiales en engendrent de très grandes dans les phénomènes finaux ; une petite erreur sur les premières produirait une erreur énorme sur les derniers. La prédiction devient impossible et nous avons le phénomène fortuit.


Bref, on pourrait déplacer la problématique initiale en se demandant si l'Univers est bel et bien déterministe. Le principe d'incertitude énoncé par Heisenberg (qui dit que l'on ne peut connaître et la position et la vitesse d'une particule à un instant donné) semble assujettir le monde au hasard.

Finalement, on peut trouver plusieurs niveaux dans la notion de « hasard ». Loin de ces théories physiques, on pourrait réfléchir aux idées philosophiques (seule une entité infinie pourrait abolir le hasard, nous ne sommes pas infinis, le hasard existe donc pour nous) et aux effets biologiques qu'il produit. Prenons par exemple l'évolution des espèces, due au hasard des mutations spontanées : même si celles-ci auraient pu être prédites, nous ne le pouvons pas, et nous appelons hasard ce que nous ne sommes pas en mesure de « contrôler » (je parle sous ton contrôle Guillawme ). Bref, vaste sujet.


« Le vice est aussi nécessaire dans un État florissant que la faim est nécessaire pour nous obliger à manger. Il est impossible que la vertu seule rende jamais une Nation célèbre et glorieuse. » — Bernard Mandeville.

 

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